The country's GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report 'Ecowrap'. The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31. "Based on our 'nowcasting model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent," the research report said.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday said a GDP growth of 8 per cent was sustainable, and the target of 10 per cent growth per year was realistic.
The government on Tuesday said it is focusing on putting the economy back on the 9 per cent growth trajectory from 7.4 per cent during 2009-10 and then further pushing it to double digits.
However, the World Bank has projected India's GDP growth rate at 7.5 per cent for the next three financial years, including the current one.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
'You have seen the retrenchments by big corporates in the IT industry because they are not getting enough offers.' 'MSMEs in the manufacturing sector are really struggling. They do not know what to do. They are not able to predict what will happen tomorrow.'
Goyal said India has been recognised as the brightest spot in the world in the past 5 years.
The Economic Survey on Thursday projected the GDP growth in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent in 2026-27, a tad lower than 7.4 per cent estimated in the current fiscal.
The SBI report, however, said the economic growth rate will pick up pace in 2020-21 to 6.2 per cent.
The World Bank on Tuesday revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for India to 6.9 per cent for 2022-23, from 6.5 per cent earlier.
It is pegged at 6.8-8% by various economists, as compared to 6.7%.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath announced that the state has secured investment proposals worth approximately Rs 50 trillion over the past nine years, attributing this economic revival to the enforcement of the rule of law and strategic policy changes. He affirmed UP's trajectory towards becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2029-30.
Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal.
China's economy slowed down amid inflation concerns as its GDP growth rate slid to 9.5 per cent in the second quarter from 9.7 per cent in the first, while the economy in general expanded by 9.6 per cent in the first half of this year.
The NSE Nifty ended at 4,449, up 112 points. The market breadth was positive - out of 2,852 stocks traded, 2,147 advanced while 649 declined.
The Finance Ministry on Friday said the CSO has underestimated GDP growth rate for current financial year and exuded the confidence that economic expansion will exceed 5.5 per cent.
Economic think-tank National Council for Applied Economic Research on Tuesday revised upwards the GDP growth forecast to 7.98 per cent in 2003-04 from its earlier projection of 7 per cent.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
IMF projected India's economic growth at 4.25% in 2013-14.
India's services sector experienced a slight moderation in growth during February, according to the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index, with new order growth slowing and inflation picking up.
'My concern is that, although everything is expressed in monetary terms, you are effectively combining values that have been adjusted using different price measures.'
Projecting a much better forecast than those made by the government and Reserve Bank of India, economic think tank NCAER on Tuesday said the Indian economy could grow by up to 8.9 per cent during 2008-09, despite a global slowdown.
Let's take a look at GDP growth around the world, including India.
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) has projected the aggregate fiscal deficit of states to rise to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026-27 (FY27), from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025-26 (FY26), citing higher revenue expenditure amid election-related pressures and scheme cost-sharing requirements.
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
GDP growth figures of a mere 4.5% has placed a greater onus on the government to implement reforms.
India's defence expenditure surged to $92.1 billion in 2025, making it the world's fifth-largest military spender, according to SIPRI data. This 8.9 per cent year-on-year rise was primarily driven by operational and procurement needs following heightened regional tensions with Pakistan in May 2025.
A State Bank of India report indicates a sharp increase in precautionary cash holding in India, with the gap between per capita currency in circulation and ATM withdrawals widening significantly, driven by global uncertainties despite record digital payment transactions.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, NTPC and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, ITC, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Maruti were among the gainers.
'I expect fourth quarter GDP growth to be sharply down.' 'I would imagine it would shave off at least one percentage point, if not more, as compared to the third quarter.'
Expressing optimism over the developments in the economy, Reserve Bank of India on Monday pegged the GDP growth for 2004-05 in the range of 6.5-7 per cent
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a record surplus transfer of Rs 2.87 trillion to the central government for FY26, driven by increased income and an expanded balance sheet, despite a reduction in the contingent risk buffer (CRB) to 6.5 per cent.
'We won not (only) because we were able to carry out long-range precision strikes.' 'That is, of course, one of the reasons but we had better situational awareness about what's happening than Pakistan.'
The fiscal deficit, as per the survey, deteriorated to 5.8 per cent of the GDP as compared to 3.4 per cent for 2018-19 estimated in the interim Budget.
Industry lobby groups on Tuesday said the slowdown in India's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2010-11 was mainly on account of high interest rate regime, aimed at taming inflation.
This is the time for India to plan forward fully, with the goal of Atmanirbharata, and energy security. The Persian Gulf is no longer a reliable source, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Moody's said fiscal measures undertaken by the government -- such as corporate tax rate cuts, bank recapitalisation, infrastructure spending plans, support for the auto sector and others -- do not directly address widespread weakness in consumption demand, which has been the chief driver of the economy. In addition, interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India are not being adequately transmitted to lending rates because of the credit squeeze caused by disruption in the non-bank financial sector, it said.
If TVK MLAs and ministers are perceived as clean, or demonstrably cleaner than their predecessors, the credibility dividend will be enormous. The voter will feel rewarded, points out Ramesh Menon.
India's first trillion-dollar company will be built on technology it owns, not just operates, predicts Ajay Kumar.
